In-depth coverage of Federal Reserve policy, GDP, inflation, labour markets, fiscal policy, trade, and global macro trends shaping US and international economies.
4.25–4.50%
Fed Funds Rate
+2.5%
Q1 2026 GDP (Final)
3.2%
Core CPI May YoY
4.2%
Unemployment Jun
$37T+
National Debt
📊 Key Economic Indicators
As of July 2, 2026
Fed Funds Rate
4.25–4.50%
Hold — Sep cut priced
GDP (Q1 2026)
+2.5%
Annualised, Final
Core CPI (May)
3.2% YoY
Above 2% target
Unemployment (Jun)
4.2%
+57K jobs · Weak print
Core PCE (Apr)
2.5% YoY
Best since Mar 2021
ISM Mfg PMI
50.3
First expansion in 15mo
10-Year Yield
4.42%
In triangle pattern
Recession Risk
18%
NY Fed 12-month model
📈 FRED Indicators — Pivot Dashboard
Source: St. Louis Fed (FRED)
🔍 Cross-Indicator Read
Growth vs. inflation: Real GDP rose +0.40% q/q in Q1 2026 (to $24.15T) while nominal GDP rose +1.38% — implying the GDP price deflator is running near ~1% for the quarter, consistent with a moderating-but-positive growth backdrop.
Inflation reaccelerating: Headline CPI's monthly gain jumped to +0.64% in April (from +0.86% Feb→Mar move and smaller prints late 2025), the fastest pace in this dataset — worth watching against the Fed's flat policy rate.
Fed on hold: Fed Funds has been pinned at 3.64% for four straight months (Jan–Apr 2026) after a small step-down from 3.72% in Dec 2025 — a holding pattern even as CPI momentum picks up.
Labour market cooling: June 2026 jobs report (released July 2, 2026): nonfarm payrolls rose just +57,000 — the weakest print this cycle — while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2%. But prior months were revised sharply lower: April cut by 31K to +148K, May cut by 43K to +129K. Combined revisions of -74K signal the labour market was already softer than reported. Leisure & hospitality shed 61K jobs; gains were concentrated in healthcare (+22K), social assistance (+25K), and professional services (+36K). Average hourly earnings rose +3.5% YoY to $37.64 — still above inflation, but wage growth is decelerating. Labour force participation fell 0.3pp to 61.5%.
Income outpacing spending: Personal income (+0.43% m/m, Jan) and disposable income (+0.95% m/m, Jan) both grew faster than PCE (+0.51% m/m, Apr) — a pattern that, if sustained, would support a rising personal savings rate.
Data: FRED series GDP, GDPC1, PI, DSPI, PCE, UNRATE, U6RATE, CPIAUCSL, FEDFUNDS — latest available observations (subject to BEA/BLS/Fed revisions). GDP/PI/DSPI/PCE shown in billions of dollars at seasonally-adjusted annual rates; CPI as index level (1982-84=100); rates in percent. % column = period-over-period % change for dollar/index series, percentage-point (pp) change for rate series.